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«Economia sin crecimiento». Por: Luis Pazos. (Opinión)

 

En 2019, después de 10 años, México vuelve a dejar de crecer, ¿por causas externas o internas, del gobierno anterior o del actual?

 

 

 

 

Luis Pazos / Colaboración para Revista GM5

instituto@cisle.org.mx

Durante el sexenio de Peña Nieto el PIB por habitante cayó en un 10% y con Calderón creció en un 16%, a pesar de la recesión mundial del 2008, que repercutió en un crecimiento negativo en México de menos 5.3% en 2009.

El Producto Interno Bruto o PIB, nos permite conocer la cantidad de bienes y servicios creados en un país en determinado período. Esa creación de riqueza es la base del progreso y de la mejora del nivel de vida de la mayoría. Si no crece el PIB disminuye en promedio la cantidad disponible de bienes y servicios por persona, llamado ingreso por habitante o PIB per cápita. La sociedad en general se empobrece.

Durante el sexenio de Peña Nieto el PIB por habitante cayó en un 10% y con Calderón creció en un 16%, a pesar de la recesión mundial del 2008, que repercutió en un crecimiento negativo en México de menos 5.3% en 2009.

En 2019, después de 10 años, México vuelve a dejar de crecer, ¿por causas externas o internas, del gobierno anterior o del actual?

En 2008 la economía de Estados Unidos no creció, cayó en menos 0.1%, factor determinante de la caída de la economía de México en 2009, pero en 2019 es otra historia. La economía de EUA creció en 2.9% en 2018 y se estima alrededor del 2% en 2019, año en que la mayor creación de empleos a mexicanos en EUA se tradujo en remesas récord de dólares a México, lo que apuntaló el tipo de cambio, evitó el alza del dólar e indirectamente de los precios.

Las causas de la ausencia de crecimiento en México en 2019 fueron internas y, por lo tanto, las soluciones son internas.

En 2018, último año de Peña Nieto la economía creció un 2%, la mitad del crecimiento de la economía que recibió en 2012. Aunque López Obrador heredó una economía en crecimiento, la deuda y el déficit heredados estaban prendidos con alfileres.

Los secretarios de Hacienda de López Obrador evitaron transitoriamente el agravamiento del déficit y la deuda en 2019, pero las acciones y declaraciones del Presidente, como la cancelación del aeropuerto de Texcoco, que violó contratos y el Estado de Derecho, y la reversión de hecho de la reforma energética, crearon expectativas negativas e incertidumbre que frenaron la inversión, principal detonadora del crecimiento.

En 2019 la desconfianza por acciones, gastos innecesarios y declaraciones del Presidente, fueron la principal causa de la ausencia de crecimiento. Si continúa el mismo estilo de gobernar en 2020, continuará el nulo o bajo crecimiento.

RevistaGM5
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http://www.gm5.com.mx

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