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Peso ¿Sostenido por capital especulativo? Por: Luis Pazos (Opinión)

 

En 2019 una de las principales variables que tomaron en cuenta las calificadoras para no bajar más la nota a la deuda del gobierno de México fue su capacidad de pago del servicio de esa deuda: intereses y amortización de capital. Esa capacidad la miden con el llamado superávit primario en las finanzas públicas, remanente que le queda al gobierno después de cubrir todos sus gastos.

 

 

 

Luis Pazos / Colaboración para Revista GM5

instituto@cisle.org.mx

 

capital golondrino

En 2019 ese superávit primario alcanzó 1.1% del PIB, mayor al 0.6% alcanzado en 2018. Ese mayor superávit se logró al posponer pagos a proveedores y tomar dinero de fondos de contingencia. Sin esos recursos el superávit hubiera sido aproximadamente de 0.5% del PIB, menor al alcanzado en 2018, logrado con los “gasolinazos”. Al analizar los ingresos y egresos esperados surgen dudas si el nivel mínimo de superávit que piden las calificadoras se sostendrá en el 2020 y no aumente el riesgo de una baja de calificación.

Esa posibilidad la conocen la mayoría de los fondos que compran pesos y traen dólares a México, pero con la moderna tecnología en el mundo financiero internacional, en menos de un minuto compran pesos y entran dólares en México y en el mismo tiempo, venden su posición en pesos mexicanos y se llevan sus dólares.

La causa por la que llega la inversión financiera especulativa o capital golondrina, son los relativos altos intereses que ofrece México. A febrero del 2020 la tasa de interés de referencia, la que marcan los bancos centrales, es de 0% en Europa, 1.5% en EUA, 1.7% en Canadá, 1.7% en Chile, 2.25% en Perú, 4.2% en Brasil y 7% en México, 4.6 veces más alta que en EUA, 4 veces más que en Chile y 3 veces arriba que en Perú.

La inversión financiera especulativa generó desajustes en 1994-95 que pueden repetirse, aunque con menos fuerza, en 2020, si el principal factor que sostiene al peso siguen siendo las entradas de capital financiero externo especulativo y no las expectativas positivas de la economía mexicana.

Pasar por alto dicho peligro por parte del gobierno y del Banco de México, puede crear un problema en el tipo de cambio en un futuro cercano. Para evitarlo es necesario transformar las expectativas negativas en positivas, que implica rectificar errores y asegurarse que se mantendrá un superávit primario suficiente para contar con el flujo necesario de dólares para pagar el servicio de la deuda, sin apostarle a fondos de contingencia o a la permanencia del capital golondrina.

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  9. We made the decision that it would certainly be Puerto Rico in around five minutes, and after one more 10 we currently had our trip tickets reserved:-RRB-)))) Our journey lasted seven days and certainly, as usual, it was a journey on our own. We intended our travel plan ourselves and also chose the areas that seemed one of the most fascinating to us. In today’s blog post, I will focus on sensible information concerning Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is a reliant area of the United States uncorporated arranged area on the Atlantic Sea as well as the Caribbean Sea. Therefore, travelers from the USA do not require a passport to get there, an US driving certificate is fairly enough here. The flight is taken into consideration domestic – so when it comes to Atlanta, where the substantial airport is separated right into residential and also worldwide flights, we flew generally from the residential one. The money of Puerto Rico is, naturally, US dollars, which was a wonderful help for us. Additionally, United States mobile networks run generally here. And at the same rates for calls, messages as well as network – a blessing, particularly when it pertains to the Web! Specifically considering that the wifi in numerous places in Puerto Rico was so negative. The main languages are Spanish and also English – but the huge bulk of locals talk instead the previous. Puerto Rico is located in the moist equatorial climate zone, and the typical annual temperature level is around 25 degrees Celsius. The tourist period ranges from December 15 to April 15, and tropical heavy rains most often occur in the high period. As well as it ended up being real – during our week-long remain it really did not rain only one day. Luckily, the rainfall, although it was pouring down, came very rapidly and also after 15-20 minutes the storm mored than and the sunlight was beaming once again. An intriguing truth is that, according to a research performed when, Puerto Ricans are the happiest country worldwide. If this is true, it would imply that the famous declaration that money does not bring joy has a grain of fact in it. It is approximated that practically half of the citizens of Public Relations battle with destitution, which can be seen while traveling around the island. Given That Puerto Rico is an island, it is certainly an airplane Or a ship, if you intend to link on Public Relations throughout a cruise ship in the Caribbean. The major airport terminal in San Juan the resources is well gotten in touch with significant United States cities. From what I remember, our trip from Atlanta lasted 3 hours It is best to lease an auto in Puerto Rico as well as circumnavigate the island in this way. We had the opportunity to utilize the public Puerto Rico transportation only once, in the form of a ferry, and also if all the remainder works according to similar rules, I highly suggest this auto than nerve-racking Idea – it’s actually worth leasing a car with a higher suspension. We did not know concerning it and we made a decision to buy some small gingerbread because of the most effective price. We rapidly regretted this choice, due to the fact that some corners of Puerto Rico are best explored with a 4×4 SUV. Caribbean, an island in between the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Sea, east of the Dominican Republic, tactically located on the Mona Strait – a vital path to the Panama Canal; San Juan is just one of the largest and also finest natural harbors in the Caribbean; a lot of small rivers and also high mountains in the facility of the country guarantee good irrigation of the country; the south coastline is relatively completely dry; in the north, an abundant strip of coastal plains. No one flies to Puerto Rico to see its air-conditioned federal government buildings. You want enjoyable in the sunlight. The bright side is that Flamenco Coastline will live up to your musings and afterwards some. Not just does it use white sand and blue water that shimmies coming up, but it likewise flaunts restrooms, lifeguards, food booths, volley ball nets as well as visitor stations where you can rent tools for points like snorkeling and scuba diving. Puerto Rico’s economic situation is one of one of the most dynamically developing in the Caribbean. The varied sector has plainly surpassed agriculture as the major driving pressure of the economy and an income source. Since the 1950s, American firms have actually been investing greatly on the island, encouraged by duty-free access to the US market and tax breaks. The island has United States minimum wage laws. Sugar production shed its leading position in agriculture to dairy products as well as livestock manufacturing. Tourist is typically a vital income, it is estimated that Puerto Rico was seen by nearly 5 million people in 2004. 2001-03 saw a decrease in financial development, mostly as a result of the US economic downturn; in 2004-05 there was a financial development, and also in 2006-07 it dropped once again. Puerto Rico is just one of one of the most dynamically establishing Caribbean nations. The diversified industry has actually outshined farming and is currently the main income source. Given that the 1950s, American companies have been buying the island, encouraged by the duty-free exchange with the UNITED STATES and also tax incentives. The island undergoes United States base pay regulation. Sugar production decreased, as well as the dairy products market and also animals manufacturing ended up being the primary income source. Tourist has been an essential income source for several years. It is approximated that in 1999 Puerto Rico was checked out by 5 million visitors. The diagnosis for 2000 is good, supplied that the financial boom in the US as well as the development fads in tourism as well as building proceed. Everyone wanted a piece of the New Globe, and also every person was willing to combat to get it. Nowhere is this even more obvious than the Castillo San Felipe del Morro. Officially known as La Ruta del Lechón, the Pork Highway is specifically what it sounds like: a three-mile stretch of road where every restaurant concentrates on pork. One of the most popular kind of pork is lechón, an unique dish in Puerto Rico that involves spit-roasting a whole pig with a mix of sauces as well as spices. Get your blood pumping with a journey to the Toro Verde Theme park in central Puerto Rico. It uses ziplines, rope programs and rock climbing up obstacles that are assured to make you pee your pants a little when you realize simply what you have actually obtained into! The park’s main attraction is «The Beast,» which is listed in the Guinness Publication of Globe Records as the lengthiest zipline in the world. With cobbled streets, active plazas as well as vivid houses that pile together like building blocks of yellow, blue, green, orange and also blue-green, Old San Juan is just one of one of the most vivid places to visit in Puerto Rico. This is why places like Isla Culebrita exist. Isla Culebrita is an unoccupied island off the coastline of eastern Puerto Rico. It’s just about a mile long, as well as accessibility is restricted to ferryboats as well as water taxis. Museo de Las Americas There are many galleries in Puerto Rico, however only a handful are really concerning Puerto Rico. The Museo de Las Americas is one of these valuable places. It has artifacts, symbols and also textiles from loads of aboriginal groups that lived in Latin America prior to it was conquered, and it can take you on a multi-continental journey with background. If you such as to eat, Mayaguez is the city for you. It’s house to every little thing from fine eating facilities to open-air coffee shops with big, vivid umbrellas, so you’ll have plenty of alternatives when your stomach begins growling. El Yunque National Forestis Treatment more than 28,000 acres, the El Yunque National Forest is a rich, humid rainforest where dense vegetation covers everything from slinking serpents to croaking tree frogs. It’s the only tropical jungle in Puerto Rico, and site visitors originate from throughout the Carribean to witness both its beauty and biodiversity. Situated in the city of Cabo Rojo on the most southern tip of Puerto Rico, the Los Morrillos Lighthouse is just one of those stunning places that you can only locate in the Caribbean. It’s set down in addition to white sedimentary rock cliffs that are bordered by salt marshes and shallows, and also the waves accident versus the cliffs with a violence that’s stunning however lovely. Cayo Santiago is a tiny stretch of land off the eastern coastline of Puerto Rico.

  10. We decided that it would be Puerto Rico in about 5 minutes, and also after another 10 we already had our flight tickets reserved:-RRB-)))) Our journey lasted 7 days and also naturally, customarily, it was a trip on our own. We intended our travel plan ourselves and selected the locations that seemed the most fascinating to us. In today’s article, I will certainly focus on useful information regarding Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is a reliant area of the USA uncorporated arranged area on the Atlantic Ocean as well as the Caribbean Sea. For this reason, tourists from the USA do not require a passport to get there, a United States driving certificate is fairly sufficient right here. The trip is taken into consideration domestic – so in the case of Atlanta, where the huge airport is split into residential as well as global trips, we flew normally from the residential one. The money of Puerto Rico is, naturally, US bucks, which was a great assistance for us. Furthermore, United States cellular networks run typically here. And also at the same prices for phone calls, messages and also network – a godsend, specifically when it involves the Internet! Especially given that the wifi in many locations in Puerto Rico was so bad. The main languages are Spanish as well as English – but the substantial majority of homeowners talk instead the former. Puerto Rico lies in the humid equatorial climate zone, and the average annual temperature level is around 25 degrees Celsius. The tourist season ranges from December 15 to April 15, and also tropical heavy rains usually take place in the high period. As well as it turned out to be real – throughout our week-long keep it didn’t rainfall only one day. Luckily, the rain, although it was pouring down, came really quickly and also after 15-20 minutes the storm mored than and also the sunlight was shining once more. An interesting reality is that, according to a research study carried out once, Puerto Ricans are the happiest nation worldwide. If this is true, it would certainly mean that the renowned declaration that cash does not bring happiness has a grain of truth in it. It is estimated that almost half of the occupants of Public Relations fight with poverty, which can be seen while circumnavigating the island. Given That Puerto Rico is an island, it is certainly a plane Or a ship, if you want to hook up on PR throughout a cruise ship in the Caribbean. The main airport in San Juan the funding is well connected with significant US cities. From what I remember, our flight from Atlanta lasted 3 hours It is best to lease a car in Puerto Rico as well as travel around the island by doing this. We had the chance to utilize the public Puerto Rico transportation just when, in the form of a ferryboat, and if all the rest functions according to similar rules, I strongly suggest this auto than nerve-racking Suggestion – it’s really worth renting an automobile with a greater suspension. We did not know regarding it and also we decided to acquire some tiny gingerbread due to the very best rate. We promptly regretted this choice, because some corners of Puerto Rico are best explored with a 4×4 SUV. Caribbean, an island in between the Caribbean Sea and also the North Atlantic Sea, east of the Dominican Republic, strategically located on the Mona Strait – an essential course to the Panama Canal; San Juan is among the largest as well as best all-natural harbors in the Caribbean; a large number of tiny rivers and high mountains in the center of the nation make certain good watering of the country; the south coastline is relatively dry; in the north, an abundant strip of coastal plains. No person flies to Puerto Rico to see its air-conditioned federal government buildings. You desire enjoyable in the sunlight. Fortunately is that Flamenco Beach will meet your daydreams and after that some. Not only does it supply white sand and blue water that shimmies imminent, however it also boasts bathrooms, lifeguards, food kiosks, beach ball nets and traveler stations where you can rent devices for things like snorkeling as well as diving. Puerto Rico’s economy is one of the most dynamically establishing in the Caribbean. The varied industry has plainly surpassed agriculture as the primary driving force of the economic situation and also a source of income. Since the 1950s, American firms have actually been investing heavily on the island, motivated by duty-free access to the US market and tax breaks. The island has United States minimum wage laws. Sugar manufacturing lost its prominent setting in agriculture to dairy products and livestock manufacturing. Tourist is commonly a vital income, it is approximated that Puerto Rico was seen by almost 5 million individuals in 2004. 2001-03 saw a decrease in economic development, generally due to the United States recession; in 2004-05 there was an economic development, and in 2006-07 it dropped once more. Puerto Rico is one of one of the most dynamically establishing Caribbean nations. The varied sector has outdone farming and is currently the primary source of income. Considering that the 1950s, American companies have actually been investing on the island, urged by the duty-free exchange with the U.S.A. and also tax obligation incentives. The island goes through US minimum wage law. Sugar production decreased, as well as the milk market and livestock manufacturing came to be the main income. Tourist has actually been a vital income source for years. It is estimated that in 1999 Puerto Rico was visited by 5 million tourists. The diagnosis for 2000 is excellent, provided that the economic boom in the US as well as the growth patterns in tourist and building and construction continue. Everyone wanted an item of the New World, and every person agreed to eliminate to get it. No place is this even more noticeable than the Castillo San Felipe del Morro. Formally referred to as La Ruta del Lechón, the Pork Highway is exactly what it sounds like: a three-mile stretch of road where every dining establishment focuses on pork. One of the most prominent sort of pork is lechón, an unique meal in Puerto Rico that entails spit-roasting a whole pig with a blend of sauces and also spices. Get your blood pumping with a journey to the Toro Verde Theme park in main Puerto Rico. It offers ziplines, rope courses and also rock climbing difficulties that are ensured to make you pee your trousers a little when you understand simply what you’ve gotten yourself right into! The park’s main attraction is «The Monster,» which is provided in the Guinness Publication of Globe Records as the lengthiest zipline in the world. With cobbled roads, active plazas and also vivid houses that pile with each other like building blocks of yellow, blue, green, orange as well as blue-green, Old San Juan is among the most dynamic locations to check out in Puerto Rico. This is why places like Isla Culebrita exist. Isla Culebrita is an unoccupied island off the shore of eastern Puerto Rico. It’s just about a mile long, as well as access is limited to ferries and water taxis. Museo de Las Americas There are many galleries in Puerto Rico, yet just a handful are in fact regarding Puerto Rico. The Museo de Las Americas is one of these valuable areas. It has artifacts, symbols and fabrics from lots of indigenous teams that resided in Latin America before it was conquered, and it can take you on a multi-continental trip with history. If you like to eat, Mayaguez is the city for you. It’s home to whatever from fine dining establishments to al fresco coffee shops with large, vibrant umbrellas, so you’ll have plenty of alternatives when your belly starts growling. El Yunque National Forestis Covering more than 28,000 acres, the El Yunque National Park is a lush, humid jungle where thick foliage covers every little thing from crawling snakes to croaking tree frogs. It’s the only exotic rainforest in Puerto Rico, as well as site visitors come from throughout the Carribean to witness both its charm as well as biodiversity. Situated in the city of Cabo Rojo on the southernmost suggestion of Puerto Rico, the Los Morrillos Lighthouse is just one of those lovely locations that you can just find in the Caribbean. It’s perched on top of white limestone cliffs that are bordered by salt marshes as well as shallows, and also the waves crash against the high cliffs with a violence that’s stunning however lovely. Cayo Santiago is a little stretch of land off the eastern coast of Puerto Rico.

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  18. Did you understand these facts on CBD OIL and Full Spectrum CBD Hemp Oil? Cannabinoids are isolated from hemp utilizing supercritical CO2 extraction. Thanks to modern innovation, the resulting service is clean, without heavy metals and unnecessary waxes, naturally present in the plant, and the sucked liquid has a typical, oily consistency. CBD oil contains cannabidiol as a base ingredient and might include only trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). Functions as a memory enhancer, improving concentration and coordination of movements, getting rid of inflammation and frequent infections. It enhances the conduction of stimuli in the course of autoimmune illness (several sclerosis, amyotrophic sclerosis). It is suggested by medical professionals and pharmacists as an antioxidant and compound that obstructs the action of proinflammatory cytokines (proteins), e.g. in Crohn’s disease or ulcerative intestine. RSO oil has a low CBD content, while high THC. Naturally, the essential job of RSO is to cause a psychedelic result, although it can also stimulate «sick» brain structures. It is worth understanding that supplements of this type is primarily utilized by people to whom standard therapy does not bring relief in disease. The synergistic (enhancing) action of CBD and THC relative to each other is used here. When used independently, both cannabinoids can do much more together than. In addition, they jointly promote the department of non-active afferent neuron, nourish the fatty envelope of the nerves, and prevent myelin swelling that causes loss of function in some autoimmune diseases. There are also stories where cannabis in its natural type softened spasticity, lowered the frequency of convulsions and seizures, and reduced unpleasant scrapie in Parkinson’s illness. This is where the concept of receiving RSO, planned only for chronically ill individuals, come from . Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO also consist of other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). The trick is not, nevertheless, that CBD typically has a composition expanded to include flavones, flavonoids, terpenes, terpenoids, amino acids and omega acids. The distinction is mostly due to intentions directing humankind to utilize one or the other item. CBD medical marijuana oil is a rather beneficial blend of cannabinoids, developed to secure against 21st century illness. It’s finest to utilize all of these compounds together, as nature created them and enclosed in marijuana inflorescences. It ends up that cannabidiol enhances the effects of cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG), and flavones or flavonoids improve the absorption of these compounds. Omega-6 and omega-3 extremely nourish the body and do not permit to alter, which speed up the aging process of the organism and improve the advancement of cancer. Oil of marijuana in a type of hobby APR includes small quantities of CBD, balanced by the presence of THC. Makers focus on the synergistic effect of one compound relative to the other, while deserting the presence of CBC and CBG. Why such a choice? – Modern scientific research study shows that CBD + THC cope with major autoimmune illness, while CBC or CBG show minimal activity in the existence of both compounds, similar to terpenes, flavonoids or flavones, for that reason their material in the option appears to be unneeded. In addition, the cannabis strain from which THC and CBD are obtained include minimal amounts of other cannabinoids. RSO oil is entirely illegal in Poland, which is why it can not be acquired in any legally operating store on the marketplace. Of course, there are a variety of amateur methods for obtaining it, however it’s excellent to understand that substances acquired artificially in house labs doubt, untried, and the effect unknown. The solvent for the production of family RSO is normally fuel, alcohol and even kerosene, which rather of curing, poison. Alcohols and their like impair cannabinoids, therefore in reality, they do not bring anything brand-new to the medical world. Cannabis oil has actually currently marked a new era in which male ceased to fear what is unidentified, and began to find what our ancestors had already observed and utilize the considerable potential, at first look, a little strange relationships, associated primarily with pathology. Medical marijuana, contrary to its name, does not imply fermented female inflorescences and leaves including psychedelic compounds coiled in so-called «Joints», however an advantageous oil without psychedelic THC. A standard individual, after taking dosages of medicinal cannabis and accomplishing the suitable state of cannabinoids in the blood, can delight in increased resistance, reduced vulnerability to cancer, delayed aging and minimized danger of stroke or heart attack. CBD oil contains cannabidiol as a base ingredient and may include just trace amounts of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO also consist of other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). CBD medical marijuana oil is a rather helpful blend of cannabinoids, developed to secure against 21st century disease. Oil of marijuana in a kind of pastime APR includes small quantities of CBD, balanced by the presence of THC.

  19. Did you know these realities on CBD OIL and Full Spectrum CBD Hemp Oil? Cannabinoids are separated from hemp using supercritical CO2 extraction. Thanks to contemporary innovation, the resulting solution is clean, totally free of unneeded waxes and heavy metals, naturally present in the plant, and the sucked liquid has a typical, oily consistency. CBD oil consists of cannabidiol as a base active ingredient and might consist of only trace amounts of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). It is advised by physicians and pharmacists as an antioxidant and substance that blocks the action of proinflammatory cytokines (proteins), e.g. in Crohn’s illness or ulcerative intestinal tract. RSO oil has a low CBD content, while high THC. Naturally, the essential job of RSO is to cause a psychedelic result, although it can likewise promote «sick» brain structures. It is worth knowing that supplements of this type is mainly used by individuals to whom basic treatment does not bring relief in health problem. The synergistic (enhancing) action of CBD and THC relative to each other is used here. When used individually, both cannabinoids can do much more together than. In addition, they collectively stimulate the department of inactive nerve cells, nurture the fatty envelope of the nerves, and avoid myelin swelling that causes loss of function in some autoimmune diseases. There are also stories where marijuana in its natural kind softened spasticity, minimized the frequency of seizures and convulsions, and reduced unpleasant scrapie in Parkinson’s disease. This is where the concept of receiving RSO, planned just for chronically ill people, come from . Both marijuana oil type CBD and RSO also include other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). The secret is not, nevertheless, that CBD often has a structure broadened to consist of flavones, flavonoids, terpenes, terpenoids, amino acids and omega acids. The distinction is mainly due to intentions assisting humanity to utilize one or the other item. CBD medical cannabis oil is a rather helpful blend of cannabinoids, designed to secure against 21st century illness. It’s best to utilize all of these substances together, as nature produced them and confined in marijuana inflorescences. It ends up that cannabidiol improves the impacts of cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG), and flavones or flavonoids improve the absorption of these compounds. Omega-6 and omega-3 extremely nourish the body and do not permit to change, which speed up the aging procedure of the organism and enhance the development of cancer. Oil of marijuana in a kind of pastime APR contains percentages of CBD, stabilized by the existence of THC. Producers concentrate on the synergistic effect of one compound relative to the other, while deserting the existence of CBC and CBG. Why such a choice? – Modern clinical research study reveals that CBD + THC handle major autoimmune illness, while CBC or CBG reveal minimal activity in the presence of both substances, much like terpenes, flavonoids or flavones, therefore their material in the solution seems to be unneeded. In addition, the marijuana strain from which THC and CBD are derived contain negligible amounts of other cannabinoids. RSO oil is completely prohibited in Poland, which is why it can not be gotten in any legally operating shop on the market. Obviously, there are a number of amateur approaches for acquiring it, but it’s great to understand that compounds acquired synthetically in home laboratories doubt, untried, and the effect unknown. The solvent for the production of home RSO is usually fuel, alcohol and even kerosene, which instead of treating, poison. Alcohols and their like impair cannabinoids, therefore in truth, they do not bring anything brand-new to the medical world. Cannabis oil has currently marked a new age in which guy stopped to fear what is unidentified, and began to find what our ancestors had actually already noticed and use the substantial potential, initially glance, a little bizarre relationships, associated mainly with pathology. Medical marijuana, contrary to its name, does not suggest fermented female inflorescences and leaves containing psychedelic substances coiled in so-called «Joints», however a helpful oil without psychoactive THC. A standard individual, after taking dosages of medicinal cannabis and accomplishing the suitable state of cannabinoids in the blood, can delight in increased immunity, decreased vulnerability to cancer, delayed aging and decreased risk of stroke or cardiac arrest. CBD oil contains cannabidiol as a base component and may include only trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO likewise consist of other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). CBD medical cannabis oil is a rather useful mix of cannabinoids, created to safeguard against 21st century disease. Oil of cannabis in a kind of pastime APR contains little amounts of CBD, stabilized by the presence of THC.

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